Inspur Information (000977): New Articles in Ten Years
Key points of the report The industry turning point and the turning point of performance elasticity are intertwined. We are optimistic about the investment value of Inspur Information, which comes from our confidence in the company’s performance flexibility in the next few years.
The elasticity of its performance comes from the dual-wheel drive with double turning points, that is, the turning point of the server industry in the mid-term and the turning point of performance elasticity brought by the company’s scale effect.
At what stage is the industry?
The review of the domestic server’s 20 years of wind and rain has gone through two large-scale cycles, that is, the first round of de-IOE cycle from 2013-2015 and the second round of expansion started by relying on cloud computing and AIOT starting in the fourth quarter of 2017.cycle.
This can be verified from the highly consistent performance of the global and Chinese server markets in recent years and the capital expenditure performance of head cloud computing vendors.
However, the current shrinkage of the server industry at home and abroad has caused market share, but we believe that the industry contraction since the fourth quarter of 2018 is only a phased departure in the second round of expansion cycles.
Judging from the latest upstream and downstream data, the average value of the latest financial report data of the server upstream chip maker Intel ‘s data center business and the control chip maker Aspeed presents a warming variable. At the same time, in the second quarter of 2019, the cloud computing vendors ‘capital downstream of overseas servers began to pick up first.BAT capital expenditures are expected to reach the end of 2019, and domestic cloud computing capital expenditures are expected to enter a new upward cycle in 2020, gradually driving the growth of the server industry back to the medium and high-speed growth channel.
At what stage is the company?
From a growth perspective, we believe that the company is at the beginning of a new round of technology innovation cycles of 5-10 years. The main reason is that the server industry is at the beginning of a new round of expansion cycles, and the company will fully benefit as an industry leader.
Even though the market has been skeptical of the competition in the server industry since 2017, leading to white cards and other impacts on the layout, the company’s share continues to increase and shows an accelerating trend. This contains the market’s target for the company.Comprehensive recognition of upstream bargaining power, management mode, research and development mode, and delivery capacity.
Coupled with technological friction leading to some passive markets, the company’s “Matthew Effect” is expected to become more apparent.
From the company’s financial statements in 2018, cash flow, prepayment and other indicators can grind subtle changes in the relationship between the company and its suppliers.
At the same time, we expect the replacement channel to solidify, and the company’s follow-up expenses can remain relatively compact, which may be accompanied by the emergence of scale effects. It is expected that the inflection point of the medium-term profit elasticity has arrived.
From the preliminary stage, the company’s best performance in the past period corresponds to the 2013-2015 de-IOE phase, and this round of cloud computing, 5G and AIOT-driven subsequent boom cycles have just begun and are expected to move towardsUshering in the mid-level profit and estimated Davis double-click.
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2019 and 2020 will be 8 respectively.
5.3 billion and 13.
8.2 billion, corresponding to PE and 40 times and 25 times respectively, given a “buy” rating.
Risk Warning: 1.
Macro uncertainties continue to suppress the development of downstream industries; 2.
The overseas business development failed to meet expectations; 3.
The cloud computing 杭州桑拿网 industry has advanced less than expected.