Hengli Hydraulics (601100)： The 3Q19 performance is slightly lower, and it is not necessary to reduce the value excessively.
Hengli Hydraulics (601100): The 3Q19 performance is slightly 重庆桑拿网 lower, and it is not necessary to reduce the value excessively.
The 3Q19 results were slightly lower than our expected company’s 3Q19 results: operating income38.
34 ppm, an increase of 21 in ten years.
3%; net profit attributable to mother 9.
170,000 yuan, an increase of 27 in ten years.
In the single quarter, the company’s operating income in the third quarter of 19 was 10.
41 ppm, a ten-year increase4.
5%; net profit attributable to mother 2.
4.6 billion, a slight decrease of 3 previously.
8%, lower than our expectations, mainly due to the decrease in the business of excavator cylinders.
Revenue growth and gross profit margin are expected to improve significantly in 4Q19.
In the third quarter of 19th, the company’s revenue was higher than generally flat. We expect that in the third quarter of the 19th company’s excavator cylinder business will be affected by customer delays in ordering the transition period c.
15%, non-standard cylinders, pump valves increased c.
10% / c.
30%, affected by the increase in high gross profit margin excavator cylinder business, 3Q’s comprehensive gross profit margin is only 35.
3%, down 3 / year / month respectively.
6ppt; Looking forward, we expect the 4Q19 company’s excavator oil cylinder growth is expected to return to positive, and the comprehensive gross profit margin will return to more than 37%.
The expense ratio is flat every year, and the operating cash flow grows.
In the third quarter of 19, the company’s sales / administration expense ratio decreased by 0 year-on-year.
1ppt, mainly due to the company’s strengthening of internal management; the R & D / financial expense ratio ratio continues to rise1.
Net profit margin in the third quarter of 19 decreased by 2 year-on-year.
0ppt to 23.
Net operating cash inflows in the third quarter of 19
78 ppm, flowing into 1 over a year.
USD 9.9 billion, due to the increase in receivables, the balance of accounts receivable decreased by 0 at the end of the previous two quarters.
Development Trend The “bulltail effect” of component manufacturers has led to lower-than-expected 3Q19 performance.
The OEMs ‘orders for parts and components are subject to lag due to the industry boom, and the OEMs’ inventory cycle has exacerbated the changes in the orders of the component manufacturers.
The sluggish sales of the excavator industry in June led to a significant increase in the revenue of Hengjiuli Hydraulics 3Q19 excavator cylinders and drove down the gross profit margin.
The industry’s sales accelerated in August. In the fourth quarter, the production capacity of Hengli hydraulic excavator cylinders was once again supply and demand, with continuous production for 24 hours.
We expect Hengli Hydraulics’ profit growth in the fourth quarter is expected to reach a tumbling level.
Pumping valve business volume is expected to smooth the performance.
We estimate that the company’s hydraulic pump valve revenue will be about 1.4 billion this year, with a gross profit margin of over 30%, but its profitability is lower than that of the excavator cylinder business.
We believe that the company’s pump and valve business revenue will increase by more than 50% in 2020, and its profitability will exceed that of excavator cylinders. At that time, the marginal impact of changes in excavator demand will gradually weaken.
Earnings forecasts and estimates As 3Q19 performance is not up to expectations, we lower the company’s EPS forecast for 2019/209.
0% / 13.
9% to 1.
The current sustainable corresponding 19/20/29/21 times P / E, maintaining the outperform industry rating.
Considering the downward revision of profit forecast and the estimation switch, maintain target price of 40.
52 yuan, corresponding to 30/22 times P / E in 2019/20, which is 3 more than currently available.
Risk pump valve product volume was less than expected.