Sun Paper (002078): Short-term performance will not change under pressure
Event: Sun Paper published the 2019 first quarter report, and the company achieved 54 revenue in Q1 2019.
51 ppm, a ten-year increase of 8.
13%; net profit attributable to mother 3.
8 ‰, 38 years ago.
34%; net profit after deduction of non-return to mother3.
34 ‰, 44 from the previous decade.
The decline in the price of finished paper dragged down the decline in gross profit margin.
The company’s gross profit margin during Q1 of 2019 was 17.
7%, 9 years ago.
8pct, which is an increase of 0 from the previous month.
The decrease in gross profit margin was mainly due to the decrease in the price of finished paper.
At the end of the first quarter of 2019, the average market prices of double offset paper / coated paper / cardboard paper were 5886/5545/4420 yuan / ton, respectively, and the intervals dropped by 21.
66% / 23.
78% / 11.
The company’s 2019Q1 net profit is 6.
98%, a decline of 5 per year.
3pct, down from the chain.
Fees increase slightly each year and cash flow improves.
The company’s sales expense ratio during the 2019Q1 period was 3.
25%, rising by 0 every year.
32pct, which is caused by the increase in the cost of product sales; the rate of management expenses (including research and development expenses) is 3.
59%, rising by 0 every year.
58pct, caused by the continuous increase in R & D promotion; financial expense ratio 2.
66%, a decrease of 0 every year.
16 points; net cash flow from operating activities.
70,000 yuan, an increase of 322 in ten years.
63% was due to an increase in the cash received from the sale of goods and the provision of labor services, while the cash flow of goods sold for operating activities exceeded the purchase of goods.
The company’s ending inventory at the end of the first quarter24.
3.9 billion (beginning of 21.)
The company’s ending accounts receivable was 19.
770,000 yuan, an increase of 35 in ten years.
06%, because the accounts receivable did not expire according to the contract and caused the amount to increase.Asset-liability ratio 56.
70%, a decline of 0 every year.
09pct, indicating that the asset structure is improving.
The company’s inventory turnover days were 39 in Q1 2018.
19 days rose to 41 in Q1 2019.
In 06 days, the accounts receivable turnover days were 31 in Q1 2018.
04 days fell to 28 in Q1 2019.
Strong growth momentum, leading in the industry in cost control capabilities, and long-term growth logic remain unchanged.
1) The industry has initially come out of a gradual downward phase, and has seen a normal return.
In the context of the return of the industry, Sun Paper, as the leader of the paper industry, still has strong growth momentum.
2) The company’s 杭州夜网论坛 capacity expansion and optimized layout help deep development.
In 2018, the company’s initial capacity of 20 high-end cultural paper / 30 insert chemical pulp / 80 insert boxboard has been successfully put into production, and the future growth point is clear.
3) The industry-leading cost control capability will be more significant.
In terms of raw materials, the 10-inch wood chip pulp production line and the 40-inch semi-chemical pulp production line will help the company’s container board raw material source protection and reduce dependence on waste paper.
In addition, it is expected that the natural high-yield biomass fiber project will be put into production in the second half of 2019, further consolidating its upstream advantages.
4) Accelerate internationalization and build long-term competition barriers.
The construction of the Laos project is a strategic focus of Sun Paper’s future work. The company plans to strive to gradually build a 200-ton new paper industry park in Laos to consolidate its core competitive advantages and reduce production costs in 2-3 years.
Investment suggestion: We expect the company to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company of 18-2019.
4 ‰, an average of 18% over ten years, an increase of 20.
7%, an increase of 14.
5%; corresponding EPS is 0.
Maintain the company’s rating as “overweight”.
Risk reminders: the risk of rising raw material prices, macroeconomic risks, overseas investment policy risks