Jin Shiyuan (603369): High growth momentum continues into the golden development period

Jin Shiyuan (603369): High growth momentum continues into the golden development period

The company achieved sales revenue of 41 in the first three quarters.

15 ppm, an increase of 30 in ten years.

13%; net profit attributable to mother 12.

930,000 yuan, an increase of 25 in ten years.


Among them, 2019Q3 achieved sales revenue of 10.

USD 5.8 billion, an annual increase of 32.

27%; net profit attributable to mother 2.

21 ppm, an increase of 28 in ten years.


The high growth momentum continued. The explosive growth in Nanjing and Xuzhou and other regions continued the high growth momentum of the past few quarters in the third quarter of this year, and the provincial market grew by 29%.

55%, of which Nanjing market, Yancheng region, Xuzhou region continued the high growth trend in the first half of the year, continued to maintain explosive growth, and increased by 76 in the third quarter of 2019.

18%, 135.

32% and 73.


The area of Huai’an base camp decreased slightly, down by 2.

25%; Central and Southern Jiangsu cover more than 20%.

The expansion budget outside the province is gratifying, and the sales revenue outside the province will increase by 95% in 2019Q3.

97%, high-speed growth also contributed to the province’s share of sales revenue, surpassing the increase2.

41pcts, an increase of 0 from the previous month.


In terms of advance receipts, 2019Q3 advance receipts4.

7.4 billion, a decrease of one year.

2.3 billion, an increase of 1 from the previous month.

6.7 billion.

Changes in accounts received in advance for the third quarter of 2019 + true year-on-year increase in operating income by 5.


The advance receipts are slightly tilted, mainly because the company has not pressed the market for goods, and it is completely sold out. At the same time, several regions in the province have basically completed the task indicators this year, and some regions have closed their accounts in advance.

High-end products led the rise, and the product structure was further improved. In the third quarter of 2019, the company’s product structure was further improved, with special A + growth increasing.

26%, special category A increased by 18 in ten years.

09%, the average value of products in the ex-factory price range below 100 yuan showed negative growth.

The earliest product sales during the Mid-Autumn Festival had stronger attributes of gifts and more sales of high-end products, which was related to the company’s annual marketing strategy focusing on national borders, especially the introduction of national border series products outside the province.

Since 2018, the company has successively released high-end new products of the national margin V3 / V6 / V9 “Qingya sauce”, focusing on the high-end market of more than one thousand yuan, and developing towards high-end, further improving the product structure.

Qingya sauce products will be the first to be rolled out in the rich South Jiangsu region of the province. We are optimistic about the potential of real estate wine to contribute to the high-end market in the province.

During the period, the expenses fell slightly, and the profitability was stable. During Q3 2019, expenses fell slightly, and management expenses were injected5.

42%, down by 1 every year.


Selling expense ratio 17.39%, down 4 each year.


In terms of sales expense ratio, 2019Q3 expenses are decreasing, but from the perspective of gross profit margin, 2019Q3 gross profit margin is 73.

94%, a decrease of 0 every year.

87pcts, under the background of the sharp upgrade of the product structure, the gross profit margin further decreased, showing that the market investment remains at a high level.

In the third quarter of 2019, we achieved a net margin of 20.

92%, basically the same every year.

The profit forecast benefits from the consumption upgrade in the province. The price range of the national margin of 300-600 yuan has gradually increased, and it is expected to maintain rapid growth in the next few years.

The company recently added storage and logistics centers, intelligent filling centers, and five pottery wine storage projects to provide capacity support for long-term development.

The company set its operating target for 2019 in its annual report as operating income48.

50,000 yuan (an increase of about 30%), net profit of 14.

30,000 yuan (an increase of about 25%).

We judge this year that the company will be very easy to achieve its business goals and that its forecasted revenue will be 48.

670,000 yuan, an increase of 30 in ten years.

12%; net profit attributable to mother 14.

42 ppm, an increase of 25 in ten years.

38%, budget benefit 1.

15 yuan, 28 times the current corresponding PE.

Considering that the company is the leader in the province, and in the rapid growth period in the next 3 years, the target budget is 35 times and the target price is 40.

25 yuan, give a buy rating.

Risks suggest that competition within the province is 无锡夜网 intensifying, major management defects occur in the company; breakthroughs in macroeconomic changes, and obvious substitutions in liquor consumption.