Chang’an Automobile (000625) Commentary on Major Events: In December, it regained its brilliance and Changfu ended its negative growth

Chang’an Automobile (000625) Commentary on Major Events: In December, it regained its brilliance and Changfu ended its negative growth
Matters: The company released its December production and sales report, and the group sales volume was 16.0 million vehicles, + 31% a year, + 10% MoM.Preliminary group sales of 176.40,000, at least -16%. Comments: Changan Autonomous continued its strength in December.The department sold 12 in December.60,000 vehicles (including commercial), + 53% per year, + 8% MoM.The V standard + Auchan totals about 9.50,000 vehicles, + 80% a year, + 14% MoM.The month-on-month increase mainly came from the Auchan X7, which was listed at the end of November, and achieved 10,000+ wholesale in December.CS75Plus sales increased to 20,000+, 55Plus 10,000+.In the fourth quarter of 19, the Changan V standard was driven by new vehicles such as the CS75P and achieved 21.Wholesale sales of 50,000 vehicles increased by + 35% and + 50% respectively.Under the pull of X7 in December, Auchan completed wholesale 3 in the fourth quarter of 19th.90,000 vehicles, + 6% a year, + 28% MoM.Great support for the improvement of current profitability. Changan Ford ended 29 consecutive months of negative growth.Changfu approved for sale in December.80,000 vehicles, + 1% a year, -5% from the previous month, ending 29 consecutive months of negative growth since July 2017.Changfu wholesale in the fourth quarter of 19 5.50,000 vehicles, -20% a year, + 2% MoM.In 2019, Changfu’s sales are lower than the expected competitiveness of typical models within the expected range, and the industry’s recovery rate is lower than expected.Starting from January 2020, the price of the four-wheel drive two-wheel drive sharp will start to contribute part of the increase, and then the market-competitive explorers, Lincoln adventurers, and Lincoln pilots will be listed one after another, and gradually push Changfu back on track, andLeverage earnings improved better than expected. Changan Mazda has risen steadily.Changma sells 1 in December.30,000 vehicles, + 9% per year, + 1% MoM.Changma Wholesale in the fourth quarter of 19 3.80,000, at least -0.1%, + 9% MoM, Angksela has sold over 10,000 for three consecutive months. 2020 expectations are optimistic.Changan autonomous passenger car wholesale 80 in 2019.20,000 vehicles / 7%, the strong momentum of independent new product cycle exceeds market expectations, we expect the company in 2020 to be driven by the Plus series and UNI and other new series models to achieve sales of 1 million vehicles / one time + 25%.Changfu’s 180,000 units in 2019–51%, and it is expected to achieve 300,000 units / + 64% in 2020, driven by 4 new vehicles.Changma will have 130,000 vehicles in 2019 and 160,000 vehicles in 2020 / + 20%. Investment suggestion: Changan is the current industry boom cycle, and the company’s product cycle resonates with core investment opportunities. At present, there are still potential expected differences in the market.Taking into account the actual sales volume in 2019, the supplement in the fourth quarter exceeded expectations, and the benefits brought by the replacement of assets in 2020, we adjusted the net profit attributable to mothers for 2019-2020 to -25 billion, 7.7 billion (top billion), and 4.5 billion), Corresponding to 20PE 6.7 times, 19-20PB1.2 times, 1.0 佛山桑拿网 times.The company’s historical PB hub is about 2 times, with a 20-year target PB 1.5 times the target price by 12.1 yuan raised to 16.0 yuan, maintaining the “strong push” level. Risk warning: The macro economy is lower than expected, the industry sales are lower than expected, and Changfu new car sales are lower than expected.